Predictions
Predictions are at the core of Kollit. To develop a strategy for any asset, you first need to create a prediction.
1. Access the Predictions Page
- Navigate to the Predictions page
- Click the "Make a Prediction" button
2. Select Asset and Prediction Type
A dialog will appear prompting you to:
- Choose the Asset: Select the asset you want to make a prediction for
- Select Prediction Type: Choose between a bullprediction if you wish to sell, or abearprediction if you wish to buy
You cannot create a new prediction for an asset and direction (buy or sell) if you already have an active prediction for them. To replace an existing prediction, you must delete it first. Deleting a prediction will automatically delete any associated strategy.
3. Choose Prediction Duration
Select how long your prediction will be valid. The token cost varies based on the duration:
| Duration | Token Cost | Tokens per Month |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | 1 Token | 1.00 tokens/month |
| 3 Months | 3 Tokens | 1.00 tokens/month |
| 6 Months | 5 Tokens | 0.83 tokens/month |
| 12 Months | 9 Tokens | 0.75 tokens/month |
| 18 Months | 13 Tokens | 0.72 tokens/month |
| 24 Months | 17 Tokens | 0.71 tokens/month |
Pro Tips for Duration Selection:
- Longer durations (6+ months) offer better value per month
- Longer timeframes help reduce the impact of market volatility
Visit the "Understanding Tokens" page to learn more about acquiring and managing your tokens.
4. Specify Price Points
Your prediction consists of five price points, each representing different probabilities:
Baseline (100% Certain)
A price you are 100% certain will be reached.
- For sell strategies, it cannot be lower than the current price.
- For buy strategies, it cannot be higher than the current price.
- This should be the last price you're sure of.
Pessimistic (High Likelihood)
A price you believe has a high likelihood of being reached.
- You'd be surprised if the price doesn't hit this level eventually.
50/50
A price with an equal chance of being reached or not.
- As the name suggests, it's a 50/50 probability.
Optimistic
A price that's less likely but still plausible.
- You don't expect it to be reached, but it wouldn't be far-fetched.
- Reaching this price would pleasantly surprise you.
Highly Unlikely
A price you consider highly improbable, but not impossible.
- If reached, you'd feel like you've hit the jackpot.
Important:
For buy predictions, the prices must be strictly decreasing.
For sell predictions, the prices must be strictly increasing.
5. Review and Finalize
- Review Your Prediction: Ensure all details are correct
- Make Changes if Necessary: You can go back to adjust any information
- Finalize: If everything looks good, finish the prediction
The required tokens will be deducted from your account and your new prediction will be added to your profile.
Next Steps
After creating a prediction:
- You should be automatically redirected to create a new strategy for this prediction
- If not redirected, you can create a strategy from the Strategy menu